Аннотации:
Систематически исследована динамика основных производственных фондов (ОПФ) в целом, их крупных технологических групп (отчасти также институциональных групп); определены и исследованы тенденции изменения норм обновления и норм выбытия ОПФ. Прослежены взаимосвязи этих процессов с капитальными вложениями. Найдены и проанализированы тренды изучаемых величин (во многих случаях циклические) и флуктуации текущей динамики по отношению к трендам. Получен ряд выводов относительно особенностей современных процессов воспроизводства ОПФ. Переработана современная массовая статистика: макроэкономическая – по 24 странам, в совокупности производящим примерно 60 % мировой продукции, за период, составляющий более половины всей истории роста их экономики; отраслевая – по США за период с 1961 по 2000 г. Исследование базируется на использовании методов, разработанных в теории вероятностей. Рассмотрены распределения изучаемых величин по вероятности. Предложена (в качестве экспериментальной) и систематически реализована методика соизмерения устойчивой и случайной составляющих этих распределений. Систематически используются регрессионные модели. Книга предназначена для научных работников, преподавателей экономической теории, аспирантов и студентов.
Автор приложения III - Н. П. Дементьев, приложения IV - Б.Ю. Лемешко
Описание:
CONTENTS List of diagrams – IX. List of tables – XV. FOREWORD – XXV. INTRODUCTION. METHODOLOGICAL BASE OF INVESTIGATION – 1. Primary concepts – 1. Probabilistic logic and making use of probability theory methods – 7.
CHAPTER 1. LAW OF SHORT-RUN ECONOMIC DYNAMICS – 17. 1. General substance of the law – 17. 2. Aggregate indices of economic dynamics – and its law – 25.
CHAPTER 2. SYSTEM OF FIXED PRODUCTION ASSETS: STABILITY – 34. 1. Some definitions – 34. 1.1. Terminology (35). 1.2. Aggregate magnitudes of fixed assets: defining problems (36). 2. Macro level – 39. 2.1. Statistics of the USA national accounts (39). 2.1.1. Statistical estimates (40). 2.1.2. Analysis of statistics (40). 2.2. Statistics of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (49). 2.2.1. Statistical estimates (50). 2.2.2. Analysis of statistics (58). 2.2.2.1. Increment rates of fixed production assets as a whole and those of their large technological groups (58). 2.2.2.2. Fixed production assets structure (93). 2.2.2.3. Renewal rates (101). 2.2.2.4. Removal rates (121). 3. Industry level – 137. 3.1. Statistical estimates (137). 3.2. Analysis of statistics (140). 3.2.1. Fixed production assets increment rates (140). 3.2.2. Industry and technological structures of fixed production assets (141). 3.2.3. Renewal rates (151). 3.2.4. Removal rates (167).
CHAPTER 3. REPRODUCTION OF FIXED PRODUCTION ASSETS: TRENDS, FLUCTUATIONS – 179. 1. Macro level: trends – 179. 1.1. Cycles of annual increment rates of fixed production assets as a whole (181). 1.1.1. Statistics of the USA national accounts (181). 1.1.2. Statistics of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (185). 1.2. Cycles of annual increment rates of two major institutional constituents of fixed production assets: statistics of the USA national accounts (198). 1.3. Cycles of annual increment rates of two major technological constituents of fixed production assets (204). 1.3.1. Statistics of the USA national accounts (204). 1.3.2. Statistics of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (209). 1.3.2.1. Nonresidential structures (218). 1.3.2.2. Equipment and software (221). 1.4. Cycles of renewal rates (236). 1.4.1. Statistics of the USA national accounts (238). 1.4.2. Statistics of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (238). 1.5. Trends of removal rates (248). 1.5.1. Statistics of the USA national accounts (249). 1.5.2. Statistics of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (250). 2. Macro level: fluctuations – 263. 2.1. Annual increment rates of 6 technological constituents of fixed production assets (265). 2.1.1. Statistical observations (266). 2.1.2. Relation between stable and random components of random variable distribution by probability: a suggested method of measure (280). 2.1.3. Estimates of relation between stable and random components of increment rates of 6 technological constituents of fixed production assets distribution by probability (291). 2.2. Annual increment rates of renewal rates of 6 technological constituents of fixed production assets (304). 2.3. Annual increment rates of removal rates of 6 technological constituents of fixed production assets (330). 3. Industry level – 343. 3.1. Industries of investment complex: trends (344). 3.1.1. Cycles of fixed production assets annual increment rates (344). 3.1.2. Cycles of renewal rates (353). 3.1.3. Trends of removal rates (361). 3.2. System of industries: fluctuations (367). 3.2.1. Annual increment rates of fixed production assets (367). 3.2.2. Annual increment rates of renewal rates (373). 3.2.3. Annual increment rates of removal rates (378).
CHAPTER 4. FIXED INVESTMENTS DYNAMICS: TRENDS, FLUCTUATIONS – 384. 1. Cycles of increments – 385. 1.1. Statistics of the USA national accounts (386). 1.2. Statistics of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (396). 1.3. Statistics of the UNO national accounts (408). 1.3.1. 1973–1995 statistics (409). 1.3.2. 1993–2003 statistics (415). 1.3.3. Analysis of statistics (420). 2. Increment rates fluctuations – 422. 3. Fixed investment dynamics – and dynamics of consequent removal of fixed production assets – 447. 3.1. Statement of the question (447). 3.2. Analysis of statistics (450).
NOTES For the Foreword (468). For Chapter 1 (469). For Chapter 2 (471). For Chapter 3 (475). For Chapter 4 (498).
APPENDIX I. LIST OF INDUSTRIES – 507.
APPENDIX II. SUPPLEMENTARY TABLES – 510.
APPENDIX III.
N. P. Dementiev. Instability of Mathematical Expectation and
Dispersion of Random Variables in Reference to their
Approximation – 702.
APPENDIX IV.
B. Yu. Lemeshko. Construction of Probability Model Describing
Increment Rates of Fixed Production Assets – 711.
REFERENCES – 736.